AIAI Snake Oilalmost 2 years ago
AI existential risk probabilities are too unreliable to inform policy
31 min read
Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor argue that AI existential risk probability estimates are too unreliable to inform policy. The authors claim such forecasts are highly misleading and carry no authority without grounded evidence. Policymakers should not treat quantified risk estimates as more valid than qualitative ones.
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