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Bernstein estimates India's UPI could create a ₹22,000 crore annual revenue pool by FY28 if a 40-basis-point merchant discount rate is applied to half of transaction value. Banks would receive about ₹14,000 crore and payment apps ₹7,000 crore. The estimate follows a September 14 government notification exempting UPI transactions up to ₹2,000 from any charges.
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