Moody's drops stunning take on the economy

Moody's economist Mark Zandi warns U.S. economic growth may be too weak to avoid recession risks despite no official downturn. Inflation rising and Federal Reserve constraints increase pressure on monetary policy. The New York Fed yield-curve model estimates a 14.98% chance of U.S. recession through May 2027. Zandi's analysis highlights underlying fragility beneath surface-level economic data.