PolicyDecryptabout 3 hours ago
Prediction Markets Fail Brazil Election
4 min read
Polymarket priced Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 20% before Brazil's election, yet he won his fourth term. Experts blame Brazil's April ban on prediction markets and retail traders for the 80% to 20% odds error. The market attracted only 4.5% of 2024 US election volume, causing mispricing.
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