AIThe Decoderabout 1 hour ago
AI Experts Underestimated Progress, Study Finds
4 min read
The Forecasting Research Institute found that top AI experts and superforecasters significantly underestimated recent AI progress. AI reached gold-medal level at the International Mathematical Olympiad in July 2025, five years before expert forecasts. Experts also underestimated AI's virology capabilities and AI company revenues, with Anthropic's ARR likely hitting $100 billion by September 2026. Respondents are now revising expectations upward.
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