Chinese EVs May Capture 11% US Market by 2038

Chinese automakers could sell 1.7 million vehicles annually in the US by 2038 if market access restrictions ease, capturing 11% of US new car sales, according to Mobility Global forecasts presented September 23. The scenario assumes North American production by Chinese firms, with potential US factory shifts in the 2030s after exceeding 40,000 annual sales per model. Entry could add 600,000 new US sales yearly while displacing 1 million from competitors like Nissan, Hyundai, and Toyota. Affordability of compact crossovers, priced near US used-car averages, drives demand in a flat US market. The forecast coincides with Xi Jinping's September 23 state visit to Washington and ongoing US-China trade talks, though current tariffs and industry lobbying maintain barriers.