Bitcoin moonshot forecasts face math problem

Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles produce smaller peak multiples each time: 75x in 2017, 3.5x in 2021, 1.8x in 2025. Forecasts of $300,000 to $500,000 by 2029 may be overly optimistic as institutional participation, ETFs, and derivatives make bitcoin larger, more liquid, and less volatile.