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AILessWrong14 days ago
Estimating No-CoT Task-Completion Time Horizons of Frontier AI ModelsFrontier models like GPT-5.5 complete tasks taking humans three minutes with 50% reliability without chain of thought. The no-CoT time horizon has doubled approximately every year since 2019. Since GPT-4, with-CoT time horizons grew at roughly twice the rate of no-CoT time horizons.
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