FinanceQuartzabout 2 hours ago
Prediction Markets Call Midterm Races Accurately
2 min read
Kalshi and Polymarket claim 98% accuracy in predicting midterm election outcomes. Kalshi reported 99% likelihood for House control at 8:10 p.m. ET on Nov. 4, while Polymarket noted 98.4% accuracy against pre-election data. Trading volume reached $2.5 billion, surpassing the 2024 cycle's $1.3 billion, though experts caution resolved markets skew results.
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